牛鞭效應(yīng)的影響因素及其應(yīng)對策略探討提綱

摘     要

牛鞭效應(yīng)是供應(yīng)鏈中一類典型的、由不確定性導(dǎo)致的復(fù)雜現(xiàn)象。它是供應(yīng)鏈中成員理想行為導(dǎo)致的，是一種需求變異放大現(xiàn)象，信息傳遞時因無法實(shí)現(xiàn)共享而產(chǎn)生扭曲，這種信息放大現(xiàn)象在圖形上很像一根甩起的趕牛鞭，根部（最下游客戶端)只要發(fā)生輕微抖動，就會引起末梢（原始供應(yīng)商端）較大的波動，牛鞭效應(yīng)可以使節(jié)點(diǎn)成員蒙受損失，削弱整體競爭力。
牛鞭效應(yīng)對企業(yè)的效益甚至整個國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)會造成嚴(yán)重的影響，多年來一直受到人們的關(guān)注。減小供應(yīng)鏈中的牛鞭效應(yīng)是實(shí)現(xiàn)供應(yīng)鏈管理的關(guān)鍵，也是提升供應(yīng)鏈企業(yè)競爭力的有效方式之一。
本文在總結(jié)前人研究結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上，集中闡述了供應(yīng)鏈管理、牛鞭效應(yīng)的相關(guān)概念及內(nèi)涵，對牛鞭效應(yīng)產(chǎn)生原因從系統(tǒng)原因和技術(shù)原因兩個層面進(jìn)行了深刻的分析，在此基礎(chǔ)上討論并研究了牛鞭效應(yīng)對供應(yīng)鏈管理以及國民經(jīng)濟(jì)造成的危害，并就如何弱化牛鞭效應(yīng)提出了個人的看法。
本文從供應(yīng)鏈管理的角度進(jìn)行了概括分析。全文共分為四個部分：措施做了展望和分析。
本文的創(chuàng)新是要體現(xiàn)在從系統(tǒng)和技術(shù)兩個方面綜合分析牛鞭效應(yīng)的產(chǎn)生原因，并在此基礎(chǔ)上討論分析了牛鞭效應(yīng)的弱化措施，如信息共享系統(tǒng)，大規(guī)模定制策略，戰(zhàn)略同盟等等。

關(guān)鍵詞：供應(yīng)鏈管理；牛鞭效應(yīng)；信息共享系統(tǒng)；供應(yīng)商管理庫存
Abstract
The Bullwhip Effect is a typical things in the supply chains, which is caused by the uncertainty complex situation. It is resulted from the members of the supply chains.
    The Bullwhip Effect is effected in the enterprise or even the whole national economy. How to decrease the Bullwhip Effect of the supply chain is a key to the supply chain managment, also is an importaint way to enhance competitiveness of enterprises in the supply chain.
    The paper  focuses on asset the Bullwhip Effect and supply chain managment, and its related concept and connotation. It analyses system reasons and technical reasons.Based on that, this paper disgusts and studies the harm of Bullwhip Effect to supply chain managment and national economy. And then put the personal views of how to weaken the Bullwhip Effect.
    This article is fixed on the supply chain management. And it contains four parts: the first part discussed the system  reasons and technical reasons to the Bullwhip Effect; the second part analysis the harms to the supply chain management and national economy from both the macro and micro; the third part arising the ways of how to weakening the effects of the Bullwhip Effect. Finally making the outlook and analysis of weakening the Bullwhip Effect.
    The main innovation in the paper is reflected in analyseing the system reasons and technical reasons of the Bullwhip Effect, and then analysis the weakening measures of the Bullwhip Effect,such as mass customization,strategy strategic alliance, information-sharing systems and so on.

Key words: Supply Chain Management；Bullwhip Effect；Information-sharing Systems；Vinder Management Inventory

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