房地產(chǎn)影響因素分析

房地產(chǎn)影響因素分析
 （背景）2002年以來，我國(guó)商品房銷售額大幅攀升?帶動(dòng)了房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)和城市基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資的新一輪高速增長(zhǎng)。通過產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的傳遞，進(jìn)而又拉動(dòng)鋼材、有色金屬、建材、石化等生產(chǎn)資料價(jià)格的快速上漲，刺激這些生產(chǎn)資料部門產(chǎn)能投資的成倍擴(kuò)張，最后導(dǎo)致全社會(huì)固定資產(chǎn)投資規(guī)模過大、增速過快情況的.出現(xiàn)。房?jī)r(jià)過快上漲在推動(dòng)投資增長(zhǎng)過快的同時(shí)，已經(jīng)成為抑制消費(fèi)的重要因素。
 房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格本身呈自然上漲趨勢(shì)，房?jī)r(jià)中長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)總是看漲。隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，居民可支配收入提高，民間資金雄厚，大量資金需要尋找投資渠道，而股票市場(chǎng)等投資渠道目前又處于低迷狀態(tài)，這是房地產(chǎn)投資需求不斷擴(kuò)大的經(jīng)濟(jì)背景。強(qiáng)勁的CPI上漲說明當(dāng)前的房?jī)r(jià)上漲并非孤立，是有其宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)背景的。宏觀調(diào)控能否有效防止局部行業(yè)過熱出現(xiàn)反彈，其中的關(guān)鍵就是要繼續(xù)加強(qiáng)和完善對(duì)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的調(diào)控。   （引言）國(guó)際上關(guān)于房地產(chǎn)有一種普遍的觀點(diǎn)：人均收入超過1000美元，房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)呈現(xiàn)高速發(fā)展階段。歐美等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家基本都經(jīng)歷了這樣一個(gè)階段。我們這篇論文，主要探討房地產(chǎn)影響因素分析，主要從人均收入對(duì)房地產(chǎn)長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展的影響闡述。
 
年份    X1    X2    X3     Y
1990 2551.736 1510.16 222 704.3319
1991 1111.236 1700.6 233.3 786.1935
1992 590.5998 2026.6 253.4 994.6555
1993 2897.019 2577.4 294.2 1291.456
1994 3532.471 3496.2 367.8 1408.639
1995 3983.081 4282.95 429.6 1590.863
1996 4071.181 4838.9 467.4 1806.399
1997 3527.536 5160.3 481.9 1997.161
1998 2966.057 5425.1 479 2062.569
1999 2818.805 5854 472.8 2052.6
2000 2674.264 6279.98 476.6 2111.617
2001 2830.688 6859.6 479.9 2169.719
2002 2906.16 7702.8 475.1 2250.177
2003 3011.424 8472.2 479.4 2359.499
2004 3441.62 9421.6 495.2 2713.878

X1=建材成本（元/平方米 ）  X2=居民人均收入（元）     X3=物價(jià)指數(shù)     Y=房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格（元/平方米）
初定模型：Y=c+a1*x1 +a2*x2 +a3*x3+et
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/05/05   Time: 23:04
Sample: 1990 2004
Included observations: 15
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 
X3 2.537578 0.590422 4.297908 0.0013
X2 0.146495 0.020968 6.986568 0.0000
X1 -0.018016 0.035019 -0.514447 0.6171
C 33.20929 118.2747 0.280781 0.7841
R-squared 0.983094     Mean dependent var 1753.317
Adjusted R-squared 0.978483     S.D. dependent var 600.9536
S.E. of regression 88.15143     Akaike info criterion 12.01917
Sum squared resid 85477.42     Schwarz criterion 12.20798
Log likelihood -86.14376     F-statistic 213.2186
Durbin-Watson stat 1.504263     Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

一：多元線性回歸
   
          
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/05/05   Time: 23:05
Sample: 1990 2004
Included observations: 15
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 
X1 0.336010 0.151084 2.223999 0.0445
C 792.0169 453.4460 1.746662 0.1043
R-squared 0.275612     Mean dependent var 1753.317
Adjusted R-squared 0.219889     S.D. dependent var 600.9536
S.E. of regression 530.7855     Akaike info criterion 15.51016
Sum squared resid 3662533.     Schwarz criterion 15.60457
Log likelihood -114.3262     F-statistic 4.946171
Durbin-Watson stat 0.275870     Prob(F-statistic) 0.044490

Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/05/05   Time: 23:09
Sample: 1990 2004
Included observations: 15
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 
X3 5.501779 0.525075 10.47809 0.0000
C -486.8605 220.1227 -2.211769 0.0455
R-squared 0.894128     Mean dependent var 1753.317
Adjusted R-squared 0.885984     S.D. dependent var 600.9536
S.E. of regression 202.9191     Akaike info criterion 13.58706
Sum squared resid 535290.2     Schwarz criterion 13.68146
Log likelihood -99.90293     F-statistic 109.7903
Durbin-Watson stat 0.440527     Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/05/05   Time: 23:10
Sample: 1990 2004
Included observations: 15
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 
X2 0.236347 0.015879 14.88417 0.0000
C 561.9975 88.56333 6.345713 0.0000
R-squared 0.944572     Mean dependent var 1753.317
Adjusted R-squared 0.940308     S.D. dependent var 600.9536
S.E. of regression 146.8243     Akaike info criterion 12.93992
Sum squared resid 280245.9     Schwarz criterion 13.03432
Log likelihood -95.04937     F-statistic 221.5384
Durbin-Watson stat 0.475648     Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/07/05   Time: 21:42
Sample: 1990 2004
Included observations: 15
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 
X3 2.355833 0.458340 5.139923 0.0002
X2 0.150086 0.019157 7.834714 0.0000
C 37.56794 114.2991 0.328681 0.7481
R-squared 0.982687     Mean dependent var 1753.317
Adjusted R-squared 0.979802     S.D. dependent var 600.9536
S.E. of regression 85.40783     Akaike info criterion 11.90961
Sum squared resid 87533.98     Schwarz criterion 12.05122
Log likelihood -86.32207     F-statistic 340.5649
Durbin-Watson stat 1.408298     Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

 　　　得到結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，ｘ１的系數(shù)小，然后對(duì)ｙ與ｘ１回歸可決系數(shù)小，相關(guān)性差，剔出這個(gè)因素。因?yàn)閮r(jià)格更多取決于供需關(guān)系。
修正之后為：Y＝c+a2*x2+a3*x3＋et
二：多重線性分析：三個(gè)表如上：
    X2 與X3 存在多重共線性，
1.000000  0.876073
 0.876073  1.000000

Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/05/05   Time: 23:09
Sample: 1990 2004
Included observations: 15
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 
X3 5.501779 0.525075 10.47809 0.0000
C -486.8605 220.1227 -2.211769 0.0455
R-squared 0.894128     Mean dependent var 1753.317
Adjusted R-squared 0.885984     S.D. dependent var 600.9536
S.E. of regression 202.9191     Akaike info criterion 13.58706
Sum squared resid 535290.2     Schwarz criterion 13.68146
Log likelihood -99.90293     F-statistic 109.7903
Durbin-Watson stat 0.440527     Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Sample: 1990 2004
Included observations: 15
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 
X2 0.236347 0.015879 14.88417 0.0000
C 561.9975 88.56333 6.345713 0.0000
R-squared 0.944572     Mean dependent var 1753.317
Adjusted R-squared 0.940308     S.D. dependent var 600.9536
S.E. of regression 146.8243     Akaike info criterion 12.93992
Sum squared resid 280245.9     Schwarz criterion 13.03432
Log likelihood -95.04937     F-statistic 221.5384
Durbin-Watson stat 0.475648     Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

　由于引入物價(jià)指數(shù)改善小，所以模型僅一步改進(jìn)為：Y＝c+a2*x2＋et

三：異方差檢驗(yàn)：
  
ARCH Test:
F-statistic 1.315031     Probability 0.335173
Obs*R-squared 3.963227     Probability 0.265462
    
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/05/05   Time: 23:46
Sample(adjusted): 1993 2004
Included observations: 12 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 
C 22737.94 10296.61 2.208295 0.0582
RESID^2(-1) 0.241952 0.383144 0.631493 0.5453
RESID^2(-2) -0.327769 0.404787 -0.809734 0.4415
RESID^2(-3) -0.273720 0.378355 -0.723449 0.4900
R-squared 0.330269     Mean dependent var 16705.23
Adjusted R-squared 0.079120     S.D. dependent var 18205.33
S.E. of regression 17470.29     Akaike info criterion 22.63559
Sum squared resid 2.44E+09     Schwarz criterion 22.79723
Log likelihood -131.8136     F-statistic 1.315031
Durbin-Watson stat 1.842435     Prob(F-statistic) 0.335173

 ＡＲＣＨ＝３．９６３＜臨界值７．８１４７３
 所以無異方差
 
 
White Heteroskedasticity Test:
F-statistic 0.159291     Probability 0.854522
Obs*R-squared 0.387928     Probability 0.823687
    
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/05/05   Time: 23:46
Sample: 1990 2004
Included observations: 15
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 
C 31063.28 22612.20 1.373740 0.1946
X2 -5.055754 9.640127 -0.524449 0.6095
X2^2 0.000421 0.000907 0.464605 0.6505
R-squared 0.025862     Mean dependent var 18683.06
Adjusted R-squared -0.136494     S.D. dependent var 18673.13
S.E. of regression 19906.77     Akaike info criterion 22.81236
Sum squared resid 4.76E+09     Schwarz criterion 22.95397
Log likelihood -168.0927     F-statistic 0.159291
Durbin-Watson stat 1.357657     Prob(F-statistic) 0.854522

 ＷＨＩＴＥ＝０．３８７９＜臨界值７．８１４７３
 無異方差。

四：自相關(guān)分析：
　�。模祝剑埃�４７５６
 查表的ｄｌ＝１．０７７　�。洌酰剑保�３６１
 存在自相關(guān)
 廣義差分法修正：ρ＝１－０．４７５６／２＝０．７６２２
 
 
Dependent Variable: DY
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/06/05   Time: 00:18
Sample(adjusted): 1991 2004
Included observations: 14 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 
DX2 0.182086 0.034918 5.214655 0.0002
C 236.5589 63.27388 3.738650 0.0028
R-squared 0.693820     Mean dependent var 544.1620
Adjusted R-squared 0.668305     S.D. dependent var 148.7133
S.E. of regression 85.64840     Akaike info criterion 11.86994
Sum squared resid 88027.77     Schwarz criterion 11.96124
Log likelihood -81.08959     F-statistic 27.19263
Durbin-Watson stat 1.584278     Prob(F-statistic) 0.000217

 得出：回歸后可決系數(shù)降低，考慮其他方法。
 1．迭代法：表：
 　　發(fā)現(xiàn)可決系數(shù)提高，Ｆ統(tǒng)計(jì)量提高，ＤＷ＝１．５５４７〉１．３６１
 已經(jīng)無自相關(guān)。
結(jié)論：Y－bY（－１）＝ｃ*（１－ｂ）＋a2*（x2－b*x2（－１））+et

由下表的b=0.681
 C=561.9975    a2=0.236347    179.2772
 Y*= Y－0.681Y（－１）      X*= x2－0.681*x2（－１）
 Y*=179.2272 +0.2363X*+et
 
 

Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/07/05   Time: 20:57
Sample(adjusted): 1991 2004
Included observations: 14 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 
E2 0.680509 0.177696 3.829624 0.0024
C 11.68773 24.88825 0.469608 0.6471
R-squared 0.549989     Mean dependent var 15.32764
Adjusted R-squared 0.512488     S.D. dependent var 133.2751
S.E. of regression 93.05539     Akaike info criterion 12.03583
Sum squared resid 103911.7     Schwarz criterion 12.12712
Log likelihood -82.25081     F-statistic 14.66602
Durbin-Watson stat 1.313042     Prob(F-statistic) 0.002397

 2．改進(jìn)模型方程（對(duì)數(shù)法，然后用迭代法）：Lｙ－ｂLｙ（－１）＝�。悖�（１－ｂ）＋ａ２＊（Lｘ２－ｂ＊Lｘ２（－１）
 可決系數(shù)很高，F(xiàn)統(tǒng)計(jì)量相對(duì)1中也有提高，DW=1.81>1.361
 無自相關(guān)。
 
Dependent Variable: LY
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/06/05   Time: 10:24
Sample(adjusted): 1991 2004
Included observations: 14 after adjusting endpoints
Convergence achieved after 7 iterations
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 
LX2 0.586203 0.100243 5.847799 0.0001
C 2.525810 0.882350 2.862594 0.0154
AR(1) 0.567144 0.220457 2.572589 0.0259
R-squared 0.980054     Mean dependent var 7.460096
Adjusted R-squared 0.976428     S.D. dependent var 0.351331
S.E. of regression 0.053941     Akaike info criterion -2.814442
Sum squared resid 0.032006     Schwarz criterion -2.677501
Log likelihood 22.70109     F-statistic 270.2458
Durbin-Watson stat 1.810100     Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Inverted AR Roots        .57

Dependent Variable: E1
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/07/05   Time: 21:00
Sample(adjusted): 1991 2004
Included observations: 14 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 
E2 0.501784 0.219561 2.285394 0.0413
C 0.006639 0.015069 0.440600 0.6673
R-squared 0.303258     Mean dependent var 0.007495
Adjusted R-squared 0.245197     S.D. dependent var 0.064877
S.E. of regression 0.056365     Akaike info criterion -2.782368
Sum squared resid 0.038124     Schwarz criterion -2.691074
Log likelihood 21.47658     F-statistic 5.223026
Durbin-Watson stat 1.517853     Prob(F-statistic) 0.041274

 用1，2兩種修正，兩種效果都很好，都消除了自相關(guān)，相比較2更好。
所以，方程：b=0.502
  Y*= Lｙ－o.502*Lｙ（－１）   X*= Lx2－0.502*Lx2（－１）
Y*=1.2579+0.5862X*+et

以上就是通過分析和檢驗(yàn)得到的回歸方程。所以，人均收入水平的高低在一定程度上影響房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格。當(dāng)前的房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格增長(zhǎng)背后收入是不可忽略的因素。

資料來源：中經(jīng)網(wǎng)，國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局網(wǎng)站，

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